Stock Market Today, July 27, 2026: S&P 500 Edges Higher as Oil Plunges on U.S.-Iran Pause

Wall Street kicked off a critical week on a mixed note Monday, with the S&P 500 eking out a marginal gain as oil prices plummeted after a ceasefire pause between the United States and Iran. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed on energy cost relief, the Nasdaq Composite fell sharply as semiconductor stocks — which had surged on the back of the Middle East conflict — reversed course in spectacular fashion. Markets are now bracing for the most consequential stretch of Q2 earnings season and a Federal Reserve policy decision later this week that could reshape the rate outlook.

Market Performance

U.S. equities opened broadly higher Monday after the White House announced a pause in military strikes against Iran, and Tehran confirmed it would reciprocate. That news sent crude oil prices tumbling roughly 7–8% from Friday's elevated levels — near $92 per barrel for WTI — providing immediate relief to inflation-sensitive areas of the market.

The S&P 500 (SPX) traded higher throughout most of the session, closing at approximately 7,413 — essentially flat to marginally positive compared to Friday's closing level of 7,411.98 — as early gains were partially erased by sharp selling in technology and semiconductor stocks in the afternoon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) outperformed, gaining roughly 0.46% as consumer-facing and industrial companies benefited from lower oil prices. Energy stocks sold off, but those losses were more than offset by gains elsewhere in the blue-chip index.

The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Nasdaq-100 (NDX) were the session's notable underperformers. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 declined approximately 1.15% as chip stocks — which had seen massive gains during the week of rising oil prices and Middle East tensions — retreated sharply. Investors rotated away from semiconductors and AI hardware names toward software, REITs, and energy services.

The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks slipped modestly, underperforming the large-cap benchmarks as investors showed preference for more defensive positioning ahead of the Fed meeting.

• S&P 500 (SPX): ~7,413 (+0.01%)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): ~52,560 (+0.46%)
• Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): Lower, approximately -0.5% to -1.15% (Nasdaq-100)
• Russell 2000: ~2,930 (-0.35%)
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Eased from 4.71% toward ~4.65% as oil's retreat reduced near-term inflation fears
• WTI Crude Oil: ~$82–84/barrel, down approximately 7–8% from Friday
• Brent Crude: ~$87–89/barrel, also down roughly 7–9%
• VIX (Fear Gauge): ~17.70, down from 18.6 at Friday's close

Top Stories of the Day

U.S. and Iran Pause Strikes: Oil Tumbles, Markets Breathe

The dominant market catalyst of the day was geopolitical. The United States and Iran agreed over the weekend to a mutual pause in hostilities — described by officials as a temporary hold rather than a formal ceasefire — after 13 days of renewed conflict. The pause came amid diplomatic efforts from Pakistan and China, according to multiple media reports.

The development sent crude oil prices into freefall. WTI crude, which had climbed above $92 per barrel on Friday (and briefly above $100 the prior week), fell to around $82–84 on Monday. Brent crude dropped from above $96 to below $90 at one point. The plunge eased inflation concerns that had recently driven the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.70% and raised speculation about a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Airlines, cruise operators, and other travel names — which had been punished by high fuel costs — rallied sharply. But the ceasefire pause is fragile: Houthi militants reportedly struck a Saudi oil facility over the weekend, and U.S. officials warned that negotiations remain incomplete.

Federal Reserve Meeting Begins

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convened Monday for its two-day policy meeting, with a rate decision expected Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to hold a press conference immediately following the statement release.

Going into the week, markets had priced in roughly a 36% probability of an interest rate hike, according to CME FedWatch — a possibility that had grown substantially as oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher in recent weeks. The pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities and Monday's oil price decline have reduced that probability somewhat, but the Fed's path remains uncertain.

The current federal funds rate stands at 3.50%–3.75%, held steady at the June 2026 FOMC meeting. Core PCE inflation as of May 2026 stood at 3.4% year-over-year — well above the Fed's 2% target — complicating any dovish pivot.

ServiceNow (NOW) Shares Rebound After Strong Q2 Beat

ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) was among the top S&P 500 gainers on Monday, with shares climbing approximately 7.4%, continuing to benefit from strong Q2 2026 earnings reported after the bell on July 22. The enterprise workflow automation company delivered a standout quarter: adjusted EPS of $0.90 per share beat estimates of $0.86, and revenue of $3.99 billion topped the $3.93 billion consensus — representing 24% year-over-year growth.

ServiceNow also raised its full-year subscription revenue guidance to approximately $15.77 billion at the midpoint, citing accelerating demand for AI-powered workflows. AI annualized contract value (ACV) surpassed $1 billion for the first time, ahead of the company's long-term target. Non-GAAP operating margin of 29.5% exceeded guidance by 300 basis points.

AstraZeneca (AZN) Reports H1 Results; Cancer Drug Momentum Continues

British-Swedish pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) reported strong first-half and second-quarter 2026 results before the market open Monday. The company, which is tracking toward its stated goal of $80 billion in total revenue by 2030, highlighted continued momentum from its oncology portfolio and reaffirmed full-year guidance for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit core EPS growth.

AstraZeneca is one of several international large-caps with earnings this week as the second-quarter reporting season accelerates.

Big Week for Megacap Tech: Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft Report

Investors are closely watching the next batch of Magnificent Seven earnings, with four of the group — Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) — scheduled to report Q2 2026 results Tuesday and Wednesday.

Alphabet's (GOOGL) recent earnings report disappointed investors with aggressive AI capital spending and negative free cash flow, sending its stock lower and sparking broad concern about hyperscaler returns on AI investment. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has declined more than 5% over the past week as a result.

Apple shares gained 3.5% on Friday and are up roughly 3.5% Monday as investors anticipate results, making it one of the week's standout performers ahead of earnings.

New Tariff Cycle Begins: 10%–12.5% Rates on Major Trading Partners

The Trump administration began implementing a new round of tariffs on Friday, July 25, 2026, imposing rates of 10.0% to 12.5% on dozens of major U.S. trading partners, including the European Union. The tariffs follow the expiration of a prior 10.0% global levy after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down its legal basis. Markets have been monitoring tariff developments closely, as they represent a potential headwind for corporate profit margins and global supply chains.

Biggest Movers

Intel (INTC) — Down ~7.9%

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) was among the largest decliners in the S&P 500 on Monday, extending a sharp pullback that began Thursday and Friday despite the company reporting blow-out Q2 2026 results on July 23. Intel posted adjusted EPS of $0.42 versus expectations of $0.21, and revenue of $16.1 billion versus estimates of $14.42 billion — marking its fastest revenue growth rate since Q3 2011 at 25% year-over-year. CEO Lip-Bu Tan credited "unprecedented demand for compute" driven by AI.

Despite the beat, INTC has lost roughly 28% in July alone. Analysts attribute the selloff to investors locking in gains after a massive 163% year-to-date run and concerns that the AI infrastructure boom may be peaking. Stifel maintained a Hold rating and lowered its price target from $120 to $110 on July 24.

SandDisk (SNDK) — Down ~10.8%

SandDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) was the S&P 500's worst performer Monday, falling approximately 10.8% in what analysts described as a failed momentum trade reversal. The stock had initially surged in pre-market trading alongside other memory names as China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) debuted on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a stunning 466% first-day gain — the largest IPO gain for a China-listed company ever. But the early memory sector rally reversed sharply, and SandDisk's move from +3.6% pre-market to -10.8% in regular trading reflected heavy profit-taking in a crowded position. SandDisk remains up approximately 500% year-to-date; its fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 earnings call is scheduled for August 5.

Micron Technology (MU) — Down ~7.0%

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) also participated in the memory sector selloff, declining roughly 7% as the CXMT-sparked rally faded. Like SandDisk, Micron had surged earlier in 2026 on AI-related demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), accumulating a roughly 200% year-to-date gain before Monday's reversal. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) plunged approximately 9%.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR) — Up ~11.0%

Data center REIT Digital Realty Trust (NYSE: DLR) was one of the S&P 500's biggest gainers Monday, surging approximately 11%. The move likely reflects both rotation out of energy stocks into REITs as oil prices dropped, and renewed investor interest in AI-adjacent infrastructure assets. Data center REITs are seen as direct beneficiaries of the ongoing buildout of AI computing infrastructure.

SLB (SLB) — Up ~11.0%

Oilfield services giant SLB (NYSE: SLB) surged approximately 11% despite the sharp decline in crude oil prices — an apparent earnings-driven rally. The company, formerly known as Schlumberger, reported results that exceeded expectations, with investors rewarding the company's exposure to international drilling activity outside of the U.S. shale market.

Salesforce (CRM) — Up ~7.9%

Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) gained approximately 7.9% Monday, one of the software sector's top performers. The move appears to reflect rotation into value-oriented software stocks as investors reassess the mega-cap tech trade, along with positive analyst commentary. Salesforce's most recent quarterly results showed adjusted EPS of $3.88, beating expectations of $3.12 — a 24.4% earnings surprise. The next earnings report is expected September 2, 2026.

Expedia Group (EXPE) — Up ~7.8%

Online travel company Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) gained approximately 7.8%, a direct beneficiary of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire pause as falling oil prices reduced fuel costs and boosted optimism for the travel sector. Airlines including American Airlines (AAL) were also higher in Monday's session.

Economic Data

The week's economic calendar is light on Monday, with no major U.S. data releases scheduled. However, the week as a whole is extremely consequential for investors:

• Monday, July 27: Durable Goods Orders (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Tuesday, July 28: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index; Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)
• Wednesday, July 29: FOMC rate decision (2:00 p.m. ET); Chair Kevin Warsh press conference
• Thursday, July 30: Q2 2026 GDP Advance Estimate (BEA); Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for June; Weekly Jobless Claims
• Friday, July 31: Employment Cost Index (Q2); Chicago PMI; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final, July)

Of these, the Fed decision, the Q2 GDP advance estimate, and the PCE inflation reading are by far the most market-moving. Analysts expect Q2 GDP growth around 2.1%, up from 0.5% in Q4 2025. PCE inflation for June will be closely watched as a guide to whether the inflation pressure from oil prices has begun to ease.

Tomorrow's Market Calendar: Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Tuesday brings a heavy slate of events that will likely drive significant market volatility:

Major Earnings Reports

• Visa (V) — Q3 FY2026 results (after close)
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW) — Q2 2026 (pre-market)
• The Boeing Co. (BA) — Q2 2026 (pre-market)
• Illinois Tool Works (ITW) — Q2 2026 (pre-market)
• Ecolab (ECL) — Q2 2026 (pre-market)
• Ford Motor (F) — Q2 2026 (after close)
• Mondelez International (MDLZ) — Q2 2026 (after close)
• KLA Corporation (KLAC) — Q4 FY2026 (after close)
• Omnicom Group (OMC) — Q2 2026 (after close)
• PPG Industries (PPG) — Q2 2026 (pre-market)
• Waste Management (WM) — Q2 2026 (pre-market)
• Seagate Technology (STX) — Q4 FY2026 (after close)
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) — Q2 2026 (after close)
• Teradyne (TER) — Q2 2026 (after close)
• Costar Group (CSGP) — Q2 2026 (after close)

Economic Reports

• S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (July)

Fed Watch

The FOMC's two-day meeting continues Tuesday with the rate decision and Chair Warsh's press conference scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. Any significant surprises in Tuesday's economic data could shift expectations ahead of that announcement.

Conclusion

Monday's session offered a preview of the forces that will shape markets in the weeks ahead: a fragile geopolitical ceasefire, a Fed meeting with a live debate about rate hikes, and a mega-cap earnings season that is just reaching its crescendo. The oil plunge gave stocks a temporary bid and briefly reduced inflation fears — but the pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities is not a formal ceasefire, and energy prices could reverse quickly if fighting resumes.

The critical question for investors is whether the upcoming earnings reports from Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft — coming alongside Wednesday's Fed decision and Thursday's GDP and PCE readings — will confirm the resilience of corporate America or reveal cracks beneath the surface. With the Nasdaq already under pressure from chip stock selling and the Dow buoyed by defense and industrial names, the market remains deeply bifurcated. Investors should watch Wednesday's Fed statement closely for any signals on rate trajectory, and Thursday's GDP and PCE prints for confirmation that economic growth and inflation are moving in directions that give the Fed room to hold rates steady.