Stock Market Recap: August 5, 2026 — Dow Holds Highs as SpaceX, AMD Drag Nasdaq Lower

U.S. equities delivered a mixed but broadly constructive session on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 extended their record-setting runs from Tuesday while the Nasdaq Composite retreated from intraday highs. A weaker-than-expected private payrolls report, a strong beat from the services sector, and a flood of major corporate earnings created crosscurrents throughout the day. The dominant storylines were the diverging fortunes of SpaceX and Nvidia in the AI chip space, standout beats from Eli Lilly and The Walt Disney Company, and a sharp miss from the labor market that kept investors cautious heading into Friday’s official jobs report.

Market Performance

The session opened with broad gains, as Dow and S&P 500 futures pointed to a second consecutive record-setting day. Strong earnings from Eli Lilly and Disney helped lift sentiment early. However, the Nasdaq struggled after SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) fell sharply on concerns about its massive AI capital expenditure plans, and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) declined despite record quarterly results, after Elon Musk revealed SpaceX would source AI chips exclusively from Nvidia.

• S&P 500 (SPX): Extended to a second consecutive all-time closing high, building on Tuesday’s record close of 7,736.52. The index saw intraday highs before pulling back modestly on tech weakness. Eight of 11 sectors finished in positive territory, with Communication Services (+2.9%), Industrials (+1.9%), and Consumer Discretionary (+1.8%) leading gainers. Energy (-1.3%) was the primary laggard as oil remained subdued.
• Nasdaq Composite: Fell after a morning rally as SpaceX and AMD weighed on the index. The Nasdaq had gained 2.59% on Tuesday to close at 26,584.99; Wednesday saw the tech-heavy benchmark retreat from early highs as AI-spending concerns rippled through chip and hyperscaler stocks.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Held onto gains and extended its record close from Tuesday, when the index surged 907 points to 54,085.88 for its highest-ever close. Industrials strength, aided by Caterpillar’s surge from its earnings report the prior day, continued to provide support.
• Russell 2000: Small-cap stocks traded in mixed fashion, caught between the broadly supportive macro backdrop (easing oil prices, Middle East peace hopes) and concern over the weak ADP employment data.

Treasury yields were broadly steady following the prior session's easing, with the 10-year yield near 4.61%. West Texas Intermediate crude oil held near $75–76 per barrel, remaining near three-week lows as diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz continued. Gold edged higher as analysts at Deutsche Bank noted the metal’s bullish trajectory remained intact. Bitcoin traded near recent levels with no major catalyst.

Top Stories of the Day

SpaceX’s AI Spending Blitz Divides Wall Street

The dominant market narrative on Wednesday centered on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) and its first-ever earnings report as a public company. The rocket and satellite firm delivered blockbuster results: Q2 2026 revenue hit $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, with AI-computing rental revenue growing sevenfold. However, the company’s Q2 capital expenditures of $18.4 billion far exceeded Wall Street estimates, and CEO Elon Musk outlined aggressive plans to scale AI computing infrastructure to between 15 and 20 gigawatts by 2027 — with a price tag potentially in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Musk also disclosed that SpaceX will build its AI computing infrastructure “exclusively on Nvidia,” abandoning its prior use of AMD processors. That comment sent AMD shares down roughly 7–8%, while Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) gained 3–4% on the news. Analysts at Melius Research, Wolfe Research, and 22V Research quickly published notes arguing that Musk’s comments could validate Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s projection of $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. Wolfe Research estimated SpaceX’s buildout could translate to “close to $200 billion in potential revenue for NVDA in calendar year 2027.” SpaceX shares fell more than 10% on the session. Shares also faced pressure from the expiration of the company’s post-IPO lock-up period beginning Thursday.

Eli Lilly Crushes Estimates, Raises Full-Year Guidance Again

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) reported Q2 2026 results before the open that significantly beat Wall Street expectations. Revenue surged 48% year over year to $23.0 billion, driven by continued explosive growth in GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $8.38, up 33% from a year earlier and above the $8.81 consensus estimate. Gross margin expanded to 85.8% of revenue. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $85–$87 billion, up from the prior $82–$85 billion range, and updated non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.50–$37.00. Analysts including those at Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Royal Bank of Canada had raised price targets ahead of the print.

Disney Reports Streaming Profit Doubles, Parks Set Records

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) reported fiscal Q3 2026 results before the open that topped Wall Street estimates on earnings. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.06, up 28% year over year and well above the $1.86 consensus. Revenue rose 7% to $25.25 billion, just shy of the $25.4 billion estimate. Operating income climbed 21% to $5.6 billion. The entertainment streaming division (Disney+ and Hulu) saw revenue grow 11% to $5.53 billion, and streaming operating income more than doubled to $712 million from $329 million a year earlier. Disney’s Experiences segment generated nearly $10 billion in revenue, a 10% gain, with domestic park operating income up 27%. The animated film Toy Story 5 crossed $1 billion in global box-office receipts. Disney reaffirmed full-year guidance for adjusted EPS growth of approximately 12%. Shares rose about 2.4% on the session.

Uber Posts Strong Q2 Results

Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) reported Q2 2026 results before the open showing total revenue of $14.19 billion, up 12% year over year, with gross bookings of $58.0 billion, up 24%. Net income was $2.39 billion. Delivery revenue surged 28% to $5.25 billion while Freight revenue gained 26% to $1.58 billion. The results were broadly in line with or above Wall Street estimates, though Uber shares declined nearly 7% on the session, suggesting investors may have wanted a more impressive forward outlook or margin expansion.

Middle East Diplomacy Keeps Oil Suppressed

Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crude held near $75–76 per barrel, having fallen sharply from near $85 at the end of the prior week. President Trump indicated that a deal to restore shipping through the strategic waterway may be near, though continued attacks on shipping vessels and Iran’s insistence on collecting transit fees introduced uncertainty. Mediators were working on a temporary arrangement as talks progressed. The prospect of normalized oil flows has been a positive tailwind for equity markets and a key factor in easing inflation fears.

Biggest Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) — Gained ~3–4%

Nvidia was the biggest beneficiary of Wednesday’s SpaceX earnings call. Elon Musk’s disclosure that SpaceX will build its AI data centers “exclusively on Nvidia” chips sent shares sharply higher. Analysts estimate SpaceX’s buildout alone could generate close to $200 billion in revenue for Nvidia in 2027. Nvidia reports its own fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 26, and analysts expect CEO Jensen Huang to address whether the company can formally confirm a line of sight to $1 trillion in annual revenue.

SpaceX (SPCX) — Fell ~10–12%

SpaceX’s first public earnings report showed impressive top-line results — $7.8 billion in Q2 revenue (+92% YoY), with Starlink and AI computing driving growth — but investors focused on the $18.4 billion in capital expenditures and Musk’s plans to spend massively to reach 15–20 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. The stock also faced technical pressure from the expiration of post-IPO lock-up periods. This is the classic hyperscaler dilemma: AI spending boosts chipmakers’ stocks while rattling investors in the companies doing the spending.

AMD (AMD) — Fell ~6–8%

Advanced Micro Devices reported record Q2 2026 results: revenue of $11.5 billion, up 50% year over year, with data center revenue more than doubling to $6.72 billion (+107% YoY). Non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 beat estimates. CEO Lisa Su called it “an excellent quarter.” Yet shares fell sharply after Musk revealed SpaceX would use only Nvidia chips, reversing a prior indication that SpaceX would use both AMD and Nvidia. Capital expenditures also doubled to $808 million, signaling increased investment. AMD guided Q3 revenue to approximately $13 billion, above consensus, but that was not enough to offset the SpaceX-related headwind.

Eli Lilly (LLY) — Strong Reaction on Beat-and-Raise

LLY was a notable gainer on Wednesday after the pharmaceutical giant’s GLP-1 drug sales continued their explosive trajectory. Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes drove revenue to $23.0 billion (+48% YoY), and the company raised its full-year guidance significantly. With more than 30 analysts covering the stock at a Moderate Buy consensus, market reaction was broadly positive.

Walt Disney (DIS) — Rose ~2.4%

Disney shares rose on strong fiscal Q3 beats. Theme park records, streaming profitability doubling, and the Toy Story 5 box-office milestone ($1 billion globally) combined to deliver an impressive quarter. CFO Hugh Johnston specifically highlighted Walt Disney World’s domestic outperformance versus Universal’s Orlando parks, which reported weaker attendance for the same period.

Economic Data

ADP Employment Report: Private Payrolls Miss Badly

The ADP National Employment Report for July 2026, released before the open, showed private sector employers added just 44,000 jobs — the weakest monthly gain since January 2026 and below every single economist estimate in Bloomberg’s survey. The prior month’s reading was revised down to 95,000. The sharp slowdown in hiring raised concern about the state of the labor market ahead of Friday’s official Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls report for July. Estimates for the official report had centered around 90,000 jobs, already reflecting some cooling; the ADP miss suggested downside risk to that figure.

ISM Services PMI: Expansion Continues

The Institute for Supply Management’s Services PMI for July came in at 54.5 — slightly above the June reading of 54.0 and slightly above the 54.0 forecast — marking the 25th consecutive month of expansion in the services sector (readings above 50 indicate expansion). The services sector accounts for roughly 80% of the U.S. economy, and continued expansion there helped offset some of the labor market anxiety generated by the ADP report. The services employment sub-index and business activity components were also watched closely for early signals on Friday’s jobs data.

Tomorrow’s Market Calendar: Thursday, August 6, 2026

Thursday’s session will be quieter on the economic front, with the key economic release being the preliminary Q2 2026 Productivity report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, due at 7:30 a.m. ET. Strong productivity growth would be a positive signal for inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Earnings will again be in focus:

• Before the open: ConocoPhillips (COP, EPS est. $2.10 | rev. est. $15.2B), Datadog (DDOG, EPS est. $0.58 | rev. est. $102.7B market cap), Parker-Hannifin (PH, EPS est. $8.27), Howmet Aerospace (HWM, EPS est. $1.25), Constellation Energy (CEG, EPS est. $2.34), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD, EPS est. -$0.10)
• After the close: Airbnb (ABNB, EPS est. $1.25 | rev. est. $2.75B), Cloudflare (NET, EPS est. $0.27 | rev. est. ~$405M), MercadoLibre (MELI, EPS est. $9.80 | rev. est. $4.70B), DraftKings (DKNG, EPS est. $0.18), Astera Labs (ALAB)

Investors will focus particularly on Airbnb for signals on consumer travel spending and Cloudflare for enterprise software spending trends. ConocoPhillips will be watched for read-through on energy sector guidance given the sharp drop in oil prices. The Federal Reserve is not scheduled to speak on Thursday.

Looking ahead to Friday, August 7: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official July nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings at 8:30 a.m. ET. Following the ADP miss of 44,000 jobs, markets will be highly sensitive to the official number. The Atlanta Fed’s initial Q3 GDPNow estimate has been tracking at approximately 5% annualized.

Conclusion

Wednesday’s session reinforced two of the dominant market themes of 2026: AI infrastructure spending is accelerating at a pace that unnerves investors in the companies writing the checks, while those selling the “pickaxes” — primarily Nvidia — continue to benefit. SpaceX’s massive capital expenditure plans and exclusive commitment to Nvidia chips crystallized this dynamic in a single session. Meanwhile, the consumer and healthcare sectors demonstrated resilience through strong earnings from Disney and Eli Lilly, and services sector expansion remained intact.

The critical near-term catalyst is Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The ADP’s miss of just 44,000 private sector jobs — the weakest reading of the year — has set up a binary outcome: a strong official jobs number would be a relief rally catalyst, while a soft number could raise recession concerns and put pressure on rate expectations. With the S&P 500 at record highs and the Nasdaq near its own, the market’s buffer against disappointment is thin. Investors should also watch the SpaceX lock-up expiration and Nvidia’s August 26 earnings call, which will be the next major test of the AI spending narrative.