Nvidia Surges to Record $154 as AI Chip Demand Powers Past $3.6 Trillion Valuation

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares climbed more than 4% on Wednesday to close at a record $154.31, pushing the chipmaker's market capitalization past $3.6 trillion and briefly surpassing Microsoft as the world's most valuable public company.

The rally extends a sharp rebound that has defined Nvidia's 2025 trajectory. Since reporting a first-quarter earnings beat on May 28, shares have gained roughly 14%. From the April 4 low of $94.30, the stock has surged 64%.

What's Driving the Move

Bank of America reported that technology sector fund inflows are running at their highest level since June 2024, with Nvidia capturing a disproportionate share of that capital rotation.

Two catalysts stand out. First, Nvidia's May earnings showed the company continues to convert AI spending commitments into revenue that exceeds expectations. Second, high-profile chip deals in the Middle East — with Saudi Arabia and the UAE securing orders for hundreds of thousands of processors — reinforced that global AI buildout is accelerating.

Loop Capital responded by raising its price target to $250, the highest on Wall Street. Analyst Ananda Baruah estimates the AI chip market will reach $2 trillion by 2028, and argues Nvidia's dominant position gives it monopoly-like pricing power.

"NVDA remains essentially a monopoly for critical tech, and it has pricing (and margin) power." — Ananda Baruah, Loop Capital

The Bull Case

Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google have collectively guided to over $300 billion in combined capex for 2025, with a significant portion directed toward GPU procurement. Nvidia's gross margins remain above 70%. The Middle East expansion opens a new demand vector that wasn't in most models six months ago.

Risks Worth Watching

U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China cost Nvidia an estimated $2.5 billion in Q1 revenue from lost H20 chip sales. Management projects an $8 billion revenue headwind in Q2 from expanded China restrictions.

Huawei is actively developing competing AI processors for the Chinese market, and Beijing is channeling subsidies toward domestic semiconductor self-sufficiency. At $3.6 trillion, Nvidia trades at a premium that assumes continued execution over multiple years.

What's Next

Nvidia's annual stockholder meeting on June 25 will be the next scheduled event. CEO Jensen Huang is expected to address the Blackwell Ultra architecture and next-generation Rubin platform. The key question hasn't changed: how long does the AI infrastructure supercycle last, and does Nvidia maintain its grip through the next generation of chips?

Sources: Loop Capital Markets, Bank of America, Nvidia Q1 FY2026 earnings report, company filings.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.